Arctic air has hold on region

Temperature is in white; dew points are in black; wind chill temperatures are in red.

Frigid night ahead

Diminishing snowfall doesn’t equal relief just yet: Old Man Winter is early, and is about to slap the area in the face once more. With cold air already in place (due to cold air advection Thursday evening after a frontal passage), much of the area still blanketed in at least an inch of snow, and high pressure parking itself over the Tri-Cities, expect things to chill way down tonight. We may even break a few records! Tri-Cities Regional Airport’s record low for tomorrow is 12°F (set back in 2000), so I doubt that will fall; today’s is 17°F, which, though unlikely, could, in theory, be reached by midnight. Asheville’s records (today/tomorrow, respectively) are 18°F and 17°F. 17°F is a very reachable mark, and the temperature may dip just below it tomorrow morning.

What to expect area-wide: middle to upper teens across the Tri-Cities, Asheville area, and lower elevations of Southwest Virginia; lower to middle teens across the higher elevations; and even upper single-digits across the highest terrain.

Scattered Strong Thunderstorms This Afternoon

A line of thunderstorms has developed and is moving into the Tri-Cities and Southwest Virginia. Some of these storms are strong, with gusty winds and small hail. Heavy rain is also possible. To the west, there is more scattered convection, which may also move into the area later this afternoon and into this evening.

New Warning for Hawkins County

The cell that is severe-warned in Greene County has grown and expanded into Hawkins County. This cell is beginning to look particularly nasty, with a definite capability of putting down some big hail. Warning expires at 5:45.

Click to enlarge and animate

Click to enlarge and animate

The second image may look a bit foreign to some. This is vertically integrated liquid (VIL). VIL is the integration of reflectivity within a column of air. A higher VIL means there is more precipitation in a column of air. Typically with thunderstorms, high VILs can indicate hail. This is not always the case, however, so this tool cannot be used alone in the forecasting of severe thunderstorms.

Watch out for penny size hail or larger, and winds in excess of 60 MPH, as well as heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Day Three of Severe Weather

We’ve entered our third consecutive afternoon of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Greene County until 5:15 PM for this cell:

Click image to enlarge and animate

Watch out for penny size hail, winds in excess of 60 MPH, as well as heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning.